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Patience, realism urged in ‘New Hundred-Year War’
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BY: MARILYN H. KARFELD, Senior Staff Reporter
Israel is embroiled in but the first stage of the “New Hundred-Year War,” says Amos Guiora, professor at the Case Western Reserve University School of Law and director of its Institute for Global Security Law and Policy.
This long-term conflict between radical Islam and the rest of the world has ensnared Israel as a frontline proxy for other countries, particularly Western democracies, says the Israeli citizen.
In this war, Hezbollah (funded and armed by Iran), Syria, and to some extent, Hamas, are carrying out Iran’s mission, says Guiora. He e-mailed the CJN his analysis of the conflict from his home in Mevassert, just south of Jerusalem, where he lives when he’s not teaching at Case.
Israel’s initial plan for aerial bombardment only of Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon was “optimistic at best and in retrospect, not realistic,” says Guiora, who previously served in the Israel Defense Forces Judge Advocate General Corps.
Adding ground forces and armored tanks to Israel’s air strikes was at first “less than impressive,” he maintains, attributing this shortcoming to the soldiers’ training. IDF troops were trained to carry out a police action in the West Bank and Gaza, not to fight in a major military operation, says Guiora, who was a former commander of the IDF School of Military Law.
Training emphasized staffing of security checkpoints, arresting settlers who resisted IDF soldiers, and limited combat with Palestinian terrorists, he says. “The initial price the IDF paid for this (training) was heavy.”
He pronounces Hezbollah guilty of human shielding, placing its rocket launchers next to residential areas and its fighters amidst the civilian population. As a result, Guiora says, Israel’s bombing of the building in the Lebanese village of Qana was “a tragedy that is all but inevitable in such conflicts.” Initial reports said 56 people, mainly women and children, were killed at Qana, although the Human Rights Watch last week revised that figure to 28 civilians killed.
Whatever the extent of the Qana tragedy, worldwide condemnation of Israel’s “disproportionate” response to Hezbollah provocation ensued. Even within Israel, there’s considerable concern about the military’s bombing policies. Statements from Defense Minister Amir Peretz, as well as from military and government officials, indicate that the army has eased restrictions on the bombing, less worried than in past conflicts about minimizing harm to civilians living alongside Hezbollah fighters.
While Israel has accepted responsibility for the tragic loss of life in Qana, even more critical is the need for the Lebanese government to accept responsibility over its own land, Guiora says. The Lebanese government faces the enormous task of dealing with the damage to the country’s infrastructure and economy, but it must also become accountable “to the population of southern Lebanon, which it abandoned to Hezbollah.”
While two million Israelis are now in bomb shelters and the Lebanese people are suffering as well, Guiora maintains that the ultimate losers in a war with Lebanon (and with Hamas forces in southern Israel) will be the Palestinians.
Israelis elected Prime Minister Ehud Olmert because of sympathy for the Kadima Party, which former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon created prior to his stroke, and because they approved of Olmert’s pledge to withdraw from the West Bank. Today, in the aftermath of Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, even people who describe themselves as “left” question the wisdom of more disengagement, Guiora says. He cites the “total inability” of the Palestinian Authority and its Hamas leadership to self-govern.
Instead, Hamas has resorted to terrorism (capturing Corporal Gilad Shalit while he was on Israeli, not Gazan soil) rather than addressing critical domestic issues. Furthermore, six years after Israel withdrew from Lebanon, Iran and Hezbollah have forced Israel once again across its northern borders.
Now, “the only relevant question is whether Israel is willing to engage the Iranians in direct conflict,” Guiora says.
Stipulating that he has no inside information about the government’s plans, the Case law professor notes that Israel must consider a number of factors.
First, “the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah extends well beyond southern Lebanon. Second, President Bush clearly understands that Iran is the patron” of the hostilities, and thus the US administration has given Israel “a continued green light.” Finally, some of the ruling elites in the Arab world, equally concerned about Iran, also understand this.
In these early military campaigns in the “New Hundred-Year War,” Israel is suffering economically and socially, with dozens of deaths and scores of injuries, Guiora says. “Even if an international peace-keeping force is established, it is but a matter of time before the conflict is restarted.”
This assumption is less pessimism on his part than realism, he adds. Israel is in the midst of an extremely long conflict, which will see “ebbs and flows, good and bad days.”
In its Lebanese mission, the Israeli government has said it seeks the return of its two captured soldiers and the disarming of Hezbollah. It also has demanded that the Lebanese government reassert sovereignty over its southern territory.
Four weeks into the conflict, the soldiers have not been returned. Apparently, Iran is continuing to rearm Hezbollah. And Guiora says, it will take “some time” to force Lebanon to take control of the south.
In this enormously complicated situation, Guiora can only urge patience.
mkarfeld@cjn.org
This long-term conflict between radical Islam and the rest of the world has ensnared Israel as a frontline proxy for other countries, particularly Western democracies, says the Israeli citizen.
In this war, Hezbollah (funded and armed by Iran), Syria, and to some extent, Hamas, are carrying out Iran’s mission, says Guiora. He e-mailed the CJN his analysis of the conflict from his home in Mevassert, just south of Jerusalem, where he lives when he’s not teaching at Case.
Israel’s initial plan for aerial bombardment only of Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon was “optimistic at best and in retrospect, not realistic,” says Guiora, who previously served in the Israel Defense Forces Judge Advocate General Corps.
Adding ground forces and armored tanks to Israel’s air strikes was at first “less than impressive,” he maintains, attributing this shortcoming to the soldiers’ training. IDF troops were trained to carry out a police action in the West Bank and Gaza, not to fight in a major military operation, says Guiora, who was a former commander of the IDF School of Military Law.
Training emphasized staffing of security checkpoints, arresting settlers who resisted IDF soldiers, and limited combat with Palestinian terrorists, he says. “The initial price the IDF paid for this (training) was heavy.”
He pronounces Hezbollah guilty of human shielding, placing its rocket launchers next to residential areas and its fighters amidst the civilian population. As a result, Guiora says, Israel’s bombing of the building in the Lebanese village of Qana was “a tragedy that is all but inevitable in such conflicts.” Initial reports said 56 people, mainly women and children, were killed at Qana, although the Human Rights Watch last week revised that figure to 28 civilians killed.
Whatever the extent of the Qana tragedy, worldwide condemnation of Israel’s “disproportionate” response to Hezbollah provocation ensued. Even within Israel, there’s considerable concern about the military’s bombing policies. Statements from Defense Minister Amir Peretz, as well as from military and government officials, indicate that the army has eased restrictions on the bombing, less worried than in past conflicts about minimizing harm to civilians living alongside Hezbollah fighters.
While Israel has accepted responsibility for the tragic loss of life in Qana, even more critical is the need for the Lebanese government to accept responsibility over its own land, Guiora says. The Lebanese government faces the enormous task of dealing with the damage to the country’s infrastructure and economy, but it must also become accountable “to the population of southern Lebanon, which it abandoned to Hezbollah.”
While two million Israelis are now in bomb shelters and the Lebanese people are suffering as well, Guiora maintains that the ultimate losers in a war with Lebanon (and with Hamas forces in southern Israel) will be the Palestinians.
Israelis elected Prime Minister Ehud Olmert because of sympathy for the Kadima Party, which former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon created prior to his stroke, and because they approved of Olmert’s pledge to withdraw from the West Bank. Today, in the aftermath of Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, even people who describe themselves as “left” question the wisdom of more disengagement, Guiora says. He cites the “total inability” of the Palestinian Authority and its Hamas leadership to self-govern.
Instead, Hamas has resorted to terrorism (capturing Corporal Gilad Shalit while he was on Israeli, not Gazan soil) rather than addressing critical domestic issues. Furthermore, six years after Israel withdrew from Lebanon, Iran and Hezbollah have forced Israel once again across its northern borders.
Now, “the only relevant question is whether Israel is willing to engage the Iranians in direct conflict,” Guiora says.
Stipulating that he has no inside information about the government’s plans, the Case law professor notes that Israel must consider a number of factors.
First, “the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah extends well beyond southern Lebanon. Second, President Bush clearly understands that Iran is the patron” of the hostilities, and thus the US administration has given Israel “a continued green light.” Finally, some of the ruling elites in the Arab world, equally concerned about Iran, also understand this.
In these early military campaigns in the “New Hundred-Year War,” Israel is suffering economically and socially, with dozens of deaths and scores of injuries, Guiora says. “Even if an international peace-keeping force is established, it is but a matter of time before the conflict is restarted.”
This assumption is less pessimism on his part than realism, he adds. Israel is in the midst of an extremely long conflict, which will see “ebbs and flows, good and bad days.”
In its Lebanese mission, the Israeli government has said it seeks the return of its two captured soldiers and the disarming of Hezbollah. It also has demanded that the Lebanese government reassert sovereignty over its southern territory.
Four weeks into the conflict, the soldiers have not been returned. Apparently, Iran is continuing to rearm Hezbollah. And Guiora says, it will take “some time” to force Lebanon to take control of the south.
In this enormously complicated situation, Guiora can only urge patience.
mkarfeld@cjn.org
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